Estimating the Number of Genital Warts Cases in Bushehr City (Southwest Iran) in 2019 Using the Multiplier Method

Abstract

Background: There is an information gap concerning the prevalence of genital warts infection in Iran. Objectives: The present study aimed to estimate the number of genital warts cases in the city of Bushehr using the multiplier method, which previously there was no accurate information. Methods: This 2019 cross-sectional study directly counted the number of cases of genital warts referred to private and public clinics in Bushehr City over a month (June). In July, a survey was conducted on the general population of the city in order to obtain information with reference to the number of people with a history of genital warts in the last month and to assess the patients who were referred to a healthcare center. We also interviewed physicians and midwives. Eventually, the number of genital warts cases calculated using the multiplier method (S = P-1/P-2 x m formula). In order to accurately estimate the confidence interval, a Monte Carlo analysis was used in STATA version 14. Results: The number of genital warts cases referred to a provider in the investigated month, separated by general practitioners, dermatologists, gynecologists, midwives, urologists, and infectious diseases specialists, was estimated at 258,195, 77, 48, 22, 22, and 9, respectively. Conclusions: The estimated number of genital warts cases in the study population was significantly higher than the reported cases for the investigated month by the Bushehr University of Medical Sciences Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Understanding the true number of cases of genital warts can help policymakers in designing genital wart control and prevention programs for the general population and at-risk individuals.