Global burden of cancer in children and adolescents aged 0-19 years, 1990-2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Information on childhood cancer burden is crucial for effective cancer policy planning. Unfortunately, observed paediatric cancer data are not available in every country, and previous global burden estimates have not discretely reported several common cancers of childhood. We aimed to inform efforts to address childhood cancer burden globally by analysing results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023, which now include nine additional cancer causes compared with previous GBD analyses. METHODS: GBD 2023 data sources for cancer estimation included population-based cancer registries, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. For childhood cancers (defined as those occurring at ages 0-19 years), mortality was estimated using cancer-specific ensemble models and incidence was estimated using mortality estimates and modelled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. Prevalence was estimated using survival estimates modelled from MIRs and multiplied by sequelae-specific disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. Estimates are presented globally and by geographical and resource groupings, and all estimates are presented with 95 uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS: Globally, in 2023, there were an estimated 377 000 incident childhood cancer cases (95 UI 288 000-489 000), 144 000 deaths (131 000-162 000), and 11.7 million (10.7-13.2) DALYs due to childhood cancer. Deaths due to childhood cancer decreased by 27.0 (15.5-36.1) globally, from 197 000 (173 000-218 000) in 1990, but increased in the WHO African region by 55.6 (25.5-92.4), from 31 500 (24 900-38 500) to 49 000 (42 600-58 200) between 1990 and 2023. In 2023, age-standardised YLLs due to childhood cancer were inversely correlated with country-level Socio-demographic Index. Childhood cancer was the eighth-leading cause of childhood deaths and the ninth-leading cause of DALYs among all cancers in 2023. The percentage of DALYs due to uncategorised childhood cancers was reduced from 26.5 (26.5-26.5) in GBD 2017 to 10.5 (8.1-13.1) with the addition of the nine new cancer causes. Target cancers for the WHO Global Initiative for Childhood Cancer (GICC) comprised 47.3 (42.2-52.0) of global childhood cancer deaths in 2023. INTERPRETATION: Global childhood cancer burden remains a substantial contributor to global childhood disease and cancer burden and is disproportionately weighted towards resource-limited settings. The estimation of additional cancer types relevant in childhood provides a step towards alignment with WHO GICC targets. Efforts to decrease global childhood cancer burden should focus on addressing the inequities in burden worldwide and support comprehensive improvements along the childhood cancer diagnosis and care continuum. FUNDING: St Jude Children's Research Hospital, Gates Foundation, and St Baldrick's Foundation.