Sociodemographic and Illness-Related Indicators to Predict the Status of Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorder (NMOSD) Five Years after Disease Onset

Abstract

Background: Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorder (NMOSD) is an autoimmune demyelinating disease of the central nervous system. Currently, no factors have been identified to predict the long-term course of NMOSD. To counter this, we analyzed data of 58 individuals with NMOSD at disease onset and about five years later. Methods: Medical records of 58 individuals with NMOSD (mean age: 31.13 years at disease onset; 86.2 female) were retrospectively analyzed. At baseline, a thorough medical and disease-related examination was performed; the same examination was repeated about five years later at follow-up, including treatment-related information. Mean outcome measure was the difference in EDSS (Expanded Disease Severity Scale) scores between baseline and follow-up. Results: Mean disease duration was 4.67 years. Based on the differences of the EDSS scores between baseline and follow-up, participants were categorized as improving (n = 39; 67.2), unchanged (n = 13; 22.4) and deteriorating (n = 6; 10.3). Deteriorating was related to a higher progression index, and a higher number of attacks, while the annualized relapse rate reflecting the number of attacks per time lapse did not differ between the three groups. Improving was related to a higher intake of rituximab, and to a higher rate of seropositive cases. Unchanged was related to a lower rate of seropositive cases. Factors such as age, gender, somatic and psychiatric comorbidities, symptoms at disease onset, relapse rates, number and location of cervical plaques, or brain plaques and thoracolumbar plaques at baseline did not differ between those improving, deteriorating or remaining unchanged. Conclusions: Among a smaller sample of individuals with NMOSD followed-up about five years later, individuals deteriorating over time reported a higher progression index, while the annualized relapse rate was unrelated to the progress of disease. Overall, it appears that the course of NMOSD over a time lapse of about five years after disease onset is highly individualized. Accordingly, treatment regimen demands a highly individually tailored approach.