Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Obesity and Overweight in Iranian Children and Adolescents

Abstract

Background: To date, few studies looked upon obesity and overweight in children and adolescents through the 3 different temporal dimensions of age, period, and cohort. The current study aimed at evaluating the trends of these health issues among children under 19 years old using the age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: Data gathered through 5 cross sectional studies including 2 national health surveillance (1990 - 91 and 1999), and 3 CASPIAN surveys (2003, 2009, and 2011). Subjects were classified by their body mass index (BMI) into 3 groups of normal (BMI < 85th percentile), overweight-obese (85th percentile < BMI < 95th percentile), and obese (95th percentile < BMI). Intrinsic estimator method was used to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on obesity and overweight among the subjects. Results: A total of 80,698 children and adolescents under 19 years old, including 40,419 (50.09) males and 40,279 (49.91) females, were evaluated. The prevalence of obesity decreased progressively by age in males and females with minor discrepancies. It increased from 1990 to 2009 in both genders, but from that point on remained quite constant in males and dropped significantly in females. The prevalence of obesity was steady in earlier birth cohorts, but increased significantly after the birth cohorts from 1986 to 1990. Conclusions: Environmental factors and social stresses during neonatal and infantile periods (birth cohort effect) along with other variables influencing the children later in their lives (period effect) affect the prevalence of overweight and obesity substantially. Moreover, a decrease in the prevalence of obesity and overweight was observed by age increase (age effect).